LAS VEGAS HOME VALUES AND THEIR PINCH ME MOMENT
Back at the beginning of 2012 there came a ‘pinch me, I must be dreaming’ moment. This was back in what seemed to be the Bad Old Days when Las Vegas homeowners who dared to check the latest in neighborhood home values were apt to spend a sleepless night as a result. Las Vegas home values had only just begun to creep upward, but the bottom line was still, as truck drivers used to say, ‘negatory.’ The Rip Van Winkle ‘pinch me’ moment was a single piece of polling information that, by itself, seemed to register a hard-to-swallow phenomenon. If believed, it would have the first glimmer of light at the end of a very dark tunnel. It came in the form of a Rasmussen poll reporting some of what people in America were thinking. In part, Rasmussen summarized “Belief among homeowners that home values will increase during the next few years is the strongest it has been in a year, as is confidence that their homes are worth more than what they still owe.” That poll might not have been as concrete as any of the hard numbers trickling in from the gatherers of residential sales volumes and prices, but, in the long run, it was probably more significant. As long as home values continued to plunge (as they had done for what seemed forever), there had been a good reason for home buyers to resist the impulse to buy a Las Vegas home. It’s the same reason that Las Vegas supermarkets don’t send out circulars that tell you, “BIG SALE—BUT NOT JUST YET!” Las Vegas home values didn’t have to actually fall in order to discourage market activity, either. Just flat-lining would do the trick. Recent history had been all downward, and nobody seemed too confident that the next movement wouldn’t be a continuation of the plunge. For prospective first-time buyers who had ample lifestyle reasons for wishing to buy a new Las Vegas home, it just seemed more prudent to keep their home-buying powder dry. But renting forever wasn’t going to get them anywhere—and rental affordability had been headed the wrong way since 2001… That was why Rasmussen’s report on the turnaround in homeowner optimism had been such a ‘pinch me; I must be dreaming’ moment. The idea that people finally were expecting home values to rise was a change in psychology that could fire the market, irrespective of what the numbers could yet confirm. And that’s exactly what happened. Fast-forward to the fall of 2015. The bottom was in. U.S. (and our Las Vegas) home values were about to embark on the welcome momentum shift that’s now in the record books. Pinching turned out to be unnecessary, and it was no dream. In fact, you can take advantage of this fall’s healthy Las Vegas residential home market. Just shoot me an email or a phone call!
UNRAVELING SOME LAS VEGAS REAL ESTATE JARGON
The Las Vegas real estate listings consist of the lineup of Las Vegas homes that are currently “on the market.” They’re for sale. Offered to buyers. Available for purchase. “On the market” is a straightforward real estate term; end of discussion. So, you’d think that “off the market” should be equally unequivocal, and it would be, if it weren’t for “off-market,” with which it’s easily confused. And then there’s the fact that what actually happens after a formerly listed property goes off the market can result in a several different outcomes. Sounds like a dose of contradictory Las Vegas real estate jargon—but it can be sorted out with a little-determined effort. Here goes: In real estate, off the market denotes a property that was listed in the past but currently pulled from the market. It no longer appears in the updated Las Vegas real estate listings, either because the owner has decided not to sell, or because the property is now in the process of being purchased (so more buyers don’t need to be recruited). When phrases like ‘under contract’ appear in a listing, it has the effect of being off the market at the moment, though interested buyers might keep an eye on it in case the sale doesn’t go through. An owner might withdraw a home if they now believe the market is not active enough to warrant more effort at this time, or because some event has caused them to decide to keep the house. Off the market, in today’s web-centric real estate reality, is not quite as cut-and-dried as in former eras. Because the Internet never seems to forget anything, an off-the-market property may still pop up onscreen when buyers search for new Las Vegas homes for sale (particularly when some of the national sites don’t promptly remove outdated listings). Your Las Vegas REALTOR® can keep you up-to-date on the current status of any Las Vegas property. On the other hand, Off-market is sometimes used as a synonym for “off the market,” but can be used by some national websites for upcoming properties that are being marketed, but have not yet been listed. More often, off-market is used to denote a property that is for sale but will not be advertised publicly. Since such a property isn’t entered into the Las Vegaslistings at all, most potential buyers will be unaware that it’s available. You might think this is a nutty way to try to sell a home, but there can be good reasons. Celebrity owners may be in a constant battle to stay out of the public limelight, and, therefore, resort to an arrangement (formal or informal) with a broker to discreetly market their home. The Later news will say something like, “Janet Showbiz sold her 18 bedroom Bel-Air estate off-market for $11 million.” Some extremely high-end real estate offerings are offered quietly to other brokers. This is sometimes called a ‘pocket listing.’ When successful, it results in an off-market sale. You don’t have to be a celebrity to want to discreetly search for—or sell—an Las Vegas home. If you are beginning to think over your Las Vegas real estate options, whenever you call me for a no-obligation consultation, it will always be treated with complete confidentiality.
LAS VEGAS HOMEOWNERS PREPARE FOR AN EL NINO WINTER
With fall newly arrived, it’s a time of year when Las Vegas homeowners can breathe a sigh of relief; relax and take it easy. With summer behind us, most gardens require less attention. The demands harsh winter weather will make are off in the distant future— or are they? This year it might be prudent for Las Vegas homeowners to mentally remove a month or two from their home maintenance timetables. The reason comes in two familiar words (and they aren’t English): El Niño. According to the government’s NOAA climate forecasters, there is “an approximately 95% chance that El Niño will continue through Northern Hemisphere winter 2015-2016…” Since that is definitely our Las Vegas’s hemisphere, they’re speaking to us. They answer the question, “How strong is this El Niño now?” with, “it’s pretty strong.” In August, it ranked second all-time (behind August 1997) in the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index, which is one way of measuring its power. El Niño is the condition where weather shifts occur due to a change in warm ocean currents in the Pacific. What this means to Las Vegas homeowners is as unpredictable as…well, as the weather! What is acknowledged is that normal patterns can be disrupted to varying degrees. The reason we can never get much clarity about how it’s going to affect us is that (unsatisfying though this answer may be), winter could be markedly more—or markedly less—stormy than usual. Since the maximum effect is expected in late fall through December (hence the Christmas allusion of the ‘El Niño’ name), Las Vegas homeowners might consider getting on with their winter maintenance preparations earlier rather than later. So here—a bit earlier than usual—are some regular fall maintenance heads-ups: • Check and fill the exterior gaps where critters, bugs, and cold air might enter • Chimney maintenance: if you sweep once a year, schedule now • Rain gutter check: even though leaves haven’t begun to fall in earnest, cleaning out the mucky old debris now will make later leaf removal a breeze • Inspect the roof: if damage has happened, now is the time to schedule repair • Ditto the driveway: fill cracks before winter • Now is the perfect time to clean and stain the deck. Depending on how much sunlight it gets, it may need to be renewed annually (no matter what the stain can says!) • Replace worn weather stripping around doors and windows—your winter heating bills will reward the effort. As a check of comments on the weather sites confirms, Las Vegas homeowners have differing memories of how previous El Niños have affected them. But since we are now officially in an El Niño year—it can’t be a bad idea to prepare ahead of time (and if you have Las Vegas real estate plans in the offing, now would also be a good time to give me a call)!
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